Analysis the Past and Future Rainfall Characteristics of the Main Rainy Season Over Western Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Tewabech Tesema, Gashaw Bimirew, Endeg Aniley*, Tilahun Wubu,and Tilahun Asaye

Abstract

Rainfall is an important hydrological cycle with a major influence on the environment andagricultural productivity worldwide. This study investigated the historical and projectedchanges in rainfall during the main rainy season. We analyzed observational data fromto 1991 2020 and projected future rainfall (2021 2100) using the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project phase 6 Global Climate Models (CMIP6 GCMs),after appropriate performance evaluation. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in the cessation date of the season during the past period. Future projections under various shared socio economic pathways (SSP) scenarios indicate,the onset date of the kiremt season will be delayed,while the cessation date will advance,resulting in a shorter growing period.Interestingly,despite the shortened season,projections suggest an increase in total seasonal rainfall under most scenarios.These findings highlight the need for adaptation strategies to mitigate the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns on agriculture and water resources in Western Amhara region,Ethiopia.

Keywords

Onset Date, Cessation Date, Length Of Growing Period, Rainfall

Corresponding Author

Endeg Aniley, Ethiopian Meteorology Institute, Western Amhara Meteorological Service Center, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

Citation

Tesema, T., Bimirew, G., Aniley, E., Wubu, T., Asaye, T. (2025). Analysis the Past and Future Rainfall Characterstics of the Main Rainy Season Over Western Amhara Region,Ethiopia. Jor Environ Dyn Geo-Sci, 1(1), 01-59.